{"id":81,"date":"2024-08-12T16:56:15","date_gmt":"2024-08-12T08:56:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/economicnews.info\/?p=81"},"modified":"2025-05-19T16:58:55","modified_gmt":"2025-05-19T08:58:55","slug":"global-h2-outlook-diverse-paths-selective-opportunities","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/economicnews.info\/index.php\/2024\/08\/12\/global-h2-outlook-diverse-paths-selective-opportunities\/","title":{"rendered":"Global H2 Outlook: Diverse Paths, Selective Opportunities"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The global economy is set for a diverse<\/strong> trajectory in the second half of the year, with major economies showing signs of stabilization while other regions present a more mixed picture<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the United States<\/strong>, a growth slowdown is anticipated due to easing consumer spending and a weakening labor market. Based on inflation data, including slower wage growth, our core forecast projects the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut in September<\/em>, followed by a second 25-basis-point cut in December<\/em>. Europe<\/strong>, including Germany, appears to be in a state of moderate recovery<\/strong>. In Asia<\/strong>, China’s May property support policies are in place, but any recovery is expected to be gradual and moderate<\/strong>, impacted also by increasing trade friction with the West.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Equity markets reflect this varied outlook. US indices<\/strong> continue to rise, driven by strong growth prospects and rate cut expectations, but gains remain concentrated in a few mega-cap tech stocks, with valuations<\/strong> often appearing bubbly<\/strong>. European equities<\/strong> are viewed as overall neutral<\/strong>, though we retain interest given avoided recession, improving manufacturing, and potential earlier rate cuts than the US. Japan’s TOPIX<\/strong> shows strong earnings growth<\/strong>, with forward P\/E still well below its long-term average. For Asia excluding Japan<\/strong>, we are cautiously optimistic<\/strong> on China short-term (awaiting policy follow-through), remain structurally bullish on India<\/strong>, and cautious on ASEAN<\/strong> until the Fed begins cutting (due to weak earnings and USD strength). Taiwan leads in tech (semis soaring YTD), while South Korea might catch up. AI-related sectors are expected to maintain growth momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fixed income<\/strong>, extending duration in quality government bonds<\/strong> is attractive before potential US\/Europe rate cuts, given currently high yields. For corporate bonds<\/strong>, we remain underweight non-investment grade<\/strong> due to refinancing challenges. We are more cautious on US investment grade<\/strong> (tight spreads, delayed cuts) but see specific quality opportunities<\/strong>. US cash and equivalents<\/strong> offer high relative appeal, rewarding liquidity holders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Facing uncertainty<\/strong> (US election, geopolitics), persistent high long-term rates<\/strong>, and tight credit spreads<\/strong>, the “Goldilocks” scenario is challenged. Active management is crucial. We focus on three key themes for H2: leveraging the recovery in M&A<\/strong>, capturing the potential of Artificial Intelligence<\/strong>, and seizing structural opportunities related to electrification, decarbonization, and digitalization<\/strong>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The global economy is set for a diverse trajectory in the second half of the year, with major economies showing signs of stabilization while other regions present a more mixed picture. In the United States, a growth slowdown is anticipated due to easing consumer spending and a weakening labor market. Based on inflation data, including […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":82,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-81","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-international-finance","category-wealth-management"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/economicnews.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/economicnews.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/economicnews.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economicnews.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economicnews.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=81"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/economicnews.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":83,"href":"https:\/\/economicnews.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81\/revisions\/83"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economicnews.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/82"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/economicnews.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=81"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economicnews.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=81"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/economicnews.info\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=81"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}